A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Each composes two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
